As Greek banks are set to announce their quarterly results for the year this week, JP Morgan estimates the sector will continue on a positive trend, albeit slightly down.
As JP Morgan notes, while Q1 results in 2025 posted a slight slump following a strong performance in Q4 of 2024, marked by substantial credit growth and a rise in consumer activity, indicators point to solid volume figures for the first quarter of the year.
First in line will be Eurobank, which is expected to announce its results on Tuesday, May 6, with Eurobank and the National Bank of Greece (NBG) following on May 8, and Alpha Bank on May 9.
JP Morgan highlights that net credit expansion reached €1.6 billion in the most recent quarter, driven by a 1.3% quarterly increase in loans to the private sector, translating to a 6.2% rise year-on-year.
In terms of valuation, Greek bank stocks have shown strong performance this year, climbing 23% year-to-date compared to a 19% gain for the SX7P index, according to JP Morgan. They are currently trading at 6.8 times projected 2026 earnings and at 0.85 times their book value per share, with an average forecast ROTE of 13.3% for 2027.
Regarding capital, a sequential decline in the CET1 ratio is anticipated due to the implementation of Basel IV—which is expected to have an immediate impact of 20 to 40 basis points—along with an increase in risk-weighted assets and an acceleration in the amortization of deferred tax credits (DTC).
Based on these fundamentals, JP Morgan maintains its overweight rating on all Greek banks, with an average upside potential of around 30% to its December 2026 price targets. The firm sees the highest upside for Alpha Bank (32%), followed by Eurobank and Piraeus Bank (both at 28%).
VIA: https://www.ot.gr
